SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 42.05%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
42.05% ( 0.24) | 25.7% ( -0.02) | 32.25% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 54.41% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.42% ( 0.01) | 49.58% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.39% ( 0.01) | 71.6% ( -0.01) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.58% ( 0.12) | 23.41% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.59% ( 0.17) | 57.41% ( -0.17) |
| Fleetwood Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.04% ( -0.14) | 28.96% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.15% ( -0.17) | 64.85% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Northampton Town | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.84% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.03% Total : 42.05% | 1-1 @ 12.19% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.78% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.69% | 0-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.56% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.58% Total : 32.25% |
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