SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.94%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 32.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.9%) and 0-2 (6.02%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
32.95% ( 0.18) | 23.11% ( 0.06) | 43.94% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 63.84% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.63% ( -0.22) | 37.37% ( 0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.41% ( -0.23) | 59.59% ( 0.23) |
| Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.36% ( -0) | 22.64% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.73% ( -0.01) | 56.27% ( 0.01) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.53% ( -0.18) | 17.47% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.04% ( -0.32) | 47.96% ( 0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 7.61% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0)Other @ 3.26% Total : 32.95% | 1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.96% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.1% | 1-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.2% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 3.86% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.5% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.27% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.04% Total : 43.94% |
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