SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 39.97%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 36.92% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.33%) and 2-0 (5.3%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
39.97% ( -0.69) | 23.1% ( 0.08) | 36.92% ( 0.61) |
| Both teams to score 64.87% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.56% ( -0.36) | 36.43% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.43% ( -0.39) | 58.57% ( 0.39) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.25% ( -0.45) | 18.75% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.86% ( -0.76) | 50.14% ( 0.76) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.84% ( 0.13) | 20.16% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.56% ( 0.21) | 52.44% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 8.48% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 6.33% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 4.73% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.59% Total : 39.97% | 1-1 @ 10.13% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.78% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.38% Total : 23.1% | 1-2 @ 8.12% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 4.33% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 3.63% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.59% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.13% Total : 36.92% |
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