SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 53.61%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 23.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
53.61% ( 0.54) | 22.43% ( -0.19) | 23.96% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 59.17% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.53% ( 0.54) | 40.47% ( -0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.15% ( 0.55) | 62.85% ( -0.55) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.88% ( 0.37) | 15.12% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.32% ( 0.69) | 43.68% ( -0.69) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.71% ( 0.02) | 30.29% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.53% ( 0.02) | 66.47% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.97% Total : 53.61% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.43% | 1-2 @ 6.17% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.98% Total : 23.96% |
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