SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 24.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.64%) and 0-2 (8.52%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
24.53% ( -0.19) | 23.41% ( -0.61) | 52.06% ( 0.8) |
| Both teams to score 56.43% ( 1.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.61% ( 2.49) | 44.39% ( -2.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.24% ( 2.37) | 66.76% ( -2.36) |
| Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.05% ( 1.19) | 31.95% ( -1.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.59% ( 1.33) | 68.41% ( -1.32) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.93% ( 1.23) | 17.07% ( -1.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.76% ( 2.14) | 47.24% ( -2.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 6.28% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.22% ( -0.48)2-0 @ 3.55% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.64% Total : 24.53% | 1-1 @ 11% ( -0.37) 2-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.21)0-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.61)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.41% | 1-2 @ 9.73% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.65)0-2 @ 8.52% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 5.73% ( 0.26)0-3 @ 5.02% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.25)1-4 @ 2.53% ( 0.21)0-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.12)2-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.16)Other @ 3.95% Total : 52.06% |
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