Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 36.71%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 36.34% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
0.23) 
-0.27) 
