SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Iraq | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 46.1%. A win for Indonesia had a probability of 26.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-2 (8.86%). The likeliest Indonesia win was 1-0 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iraq would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Indonesia | Draw | Iraq |
26.97% ( 1.54) | 26.93% ( 0.86) | 46.1% ( -2.4) |
| Both teams to score 47.79% ( -1.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.22% ( -2.22) | 56.78% ( 2.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.28% ( -1.82) | 77.72% ( 1.82) |
| Indonesia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.39% ( 0.09) | 36.61% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.6% ( 0.09) | 73.4% ( -0.08) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.4% ( -2.08) | 24.6% ( 2.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.9% ( -3) | 59.1% ( 3.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Indonesia | Draw | Iraq |
| 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.77) 2-1 @ 6.38% ( 0.19)2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.39)3-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.84% Total : 26.97% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.34) 0-0 @ 9.01% ( 0.74)2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.93% | 0-1 @ 12.63% ( 0.31) 1-2 @ 8.9% ( -0.31)0-2 @ 8.86% ( -0.33)1-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.41)0-3 @ 4.14% ( -0.42)2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.2)1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.25)0-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.25)Other @ 2.41% Total : 46.1% |
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