SM
| Current League A2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Belgium | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Israel | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Israel had a probability of 16.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Israel win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Italy | Draw | Israel |
63.01% ( 0.14) | 20.69% ( 0.06) | 16.3% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 52.2% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.42% ( -0.63) | 43.58% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.03% ( -0.62) | 65.97% ( 0.62) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.79% ( -0.15) | 13.21% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.06% ( -0.31) | 39.94% ( 0.31) |
| Israel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.14% ( -0.62) | 39.86% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.48% ( -0.58) | 76.52% ( 0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Italy | Draw | Israel |
| 2-0 @ 10.78% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 10.65% ( 0.23)2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.7% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.49% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.1% Total : 63% | 1-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.26% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.69% | 0-1 @ 4.84% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.94% Total : 16.3% |
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