SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 8 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 7 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Israel | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Kosovo | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Belarus | 8 | -7 | 6 |
| 6 | Andorra | 8 | -14 | 2 |
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 8 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 7 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Israel | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Kosovo | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Belarus | 8 | -7 | 6 |
| 6 | Andorra | 8 | -14 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kosovo win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for Israel had a probability of 29.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kosovo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Israel win was 1-2 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kosovo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kosovo | Draw | Israel |
46.5% ( -1.01) | 24.26% ( 0.03) | 29.24% ( 0.98) |
| Both teams to score 57.69% ( 0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.39% ( 0.44) | 44.6% ( -0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.03% ( 0.42) | 66.97% ( -0.42) |
| Kosovo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.68% ( -0.24) | 19.32% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.92% ( -0.4) | 51.08% ( 0.4) |
| Israel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.5% ( 0.91) | 28.49% ( -0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.73% ( 1.13) | 64.27% ( -1.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kosovo | Draw | Israel |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 9.05% ( -0.24)2-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.26)3-1 @ 5.12% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.1% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.68% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 3.15% Total : 46.5% | 1-1 @ 11.36% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.26% | 1-2 @ 7.13% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 6.91% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.67% Total : 29.24% |
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