SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 76.81%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 8.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.78%) and 1-0 (10.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.15%), while for a Liechtenstein win it was 0-1 (2.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Latvia | Draw | Liechtenstein |
76.81% ( -0.58) | 15.03% ( 0.25) | 8.15% ( 0.32) |
| Both teams to score 45.22% ( 0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.2% ( -0.01) | 38.8% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.89% ( -0.01) | 61.11% ( 0) |
| Latvia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.64% ( -0.13) | 8.36% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.89% ( -0.32) | 29.11% ( 0.32) |
| Liechtenstein Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.35% ( 0.79) | 50.65% ( -0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.89% ( 0.53) | 85.1% ( -0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Latvia | Draw | Liechtenstein |
| 2-0 @ 13.04% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 10.78% ( -0.2)1-0 @ 10.51% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 8.87% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 4.55% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 3.32% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.03)6-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.05)6-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.09% Total : 76.81% | 1-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 4.24% ( 0)2-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.63% Total : 15.03% | 0-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.86% Total : 8.15% |
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