SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Albania | 8 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Poland | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Moldova | 8 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 8 | -11 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 64.24%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 13.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.42%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Latvia win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Poland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Poland | Draw | Latvia |
64.24% ( -0.22) | 22.11% ( 0.11) | 13.65% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 41.78% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.74% ( -0.2) | 54.26% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.34% ( -0.17) | 75.66% ( 0.17) |
| Poland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.68% ( -0.14) | 16.32% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.1% ( -0.26) | 45.9% ( 0.26) |
| Latvia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.92% ( 0.04) | 50.08% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.29% ( 0.03) | 84.71% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Poland | Draw | Latvia |
| 1-0 @ 14.81% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 13.42% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 9.29% ( -0)3-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.56% Total : 64.23% | 1-1 @ 10.24% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 3.21% ( 0)Other @ 0.48% Total : 22.11% | 0-1 @ 5.65% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 3.54% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.5% Total : 13.65% |
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