Having claimed a draw with Bulgaria, Lithuania cannot be ruled out from gaining at least another share of the spoils in this contest. Nevertheless, we can only back the visitors, who should have enough quality at both ends of the pitch to come through with maximum points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montenegro win with a probability of 63.92%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 13.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montenegro win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.59%) and 1-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
0.4) 
-0.6) 
