SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.15% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.44%) and 1-0 (5.22%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Adelaide United |
44.1% ( 0.63) | 21.75% ( 0.08) | 34.15% ( -0.72) |
| Both teams to score 69.54% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.88% ( -0.65) | 30.12% ( 0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.66% ( -0.78) | 51.33% ( 0.77) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.45% ( -0.03) | 14.55% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.4% ( -0.06) | 42.59% ( 0.06) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.38% ( -0.64) | 18.61% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.09% ( -1.08) | 49.91% ( 1.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.07)1-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.56% ( 0.05)4-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.53% Total : 44.1% | 1-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 7.11% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.59% Total : 21.75% | 1-2 @ 7.38% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.55% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 4.14% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 3.99% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.08)3-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 0.9% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.73% Total : 34.15% |
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