Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 47.99%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
