Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 49.65%. A win for Western United had a probability of 29.17% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.12%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
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