Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 46.92%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western United would win this match.
