SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 46.8%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 23.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.14%) and 1-2 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.47%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Madagascar | Draw | Mali |
23.47% ( -0.35) | 29.73% ( 0.02) | 46.8% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 38.19% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.46% ( -0.25) | 67.54% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.37% ( -0.16) | 85.63% ( 0.17) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.03% ( -0.49) | 45.97% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.3% ( -0.38) | 81.7% ( 0.39) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.7% ( 0.05) | 29.3% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.73% ( 0.06) | 65.27% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Madagascar | Draw | Mali |
| 1-0 @ 10.46% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.59% Total : 23.46% | 0-0 @ 13.47% ( 0.13) 1-1 @ 12.85% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.35% Total : 29.73% | 0-1 @ 16.53% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 10.14% ( 0.12)1-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.15% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.23% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 1.33% Total : 46.79% |
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