SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 55.24%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 19.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 0-1 (7.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mali in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Mali.
| Result | ||
| Mali | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
55.24% ( -0.52) | 24.88% ( 0.2) | 19.88% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 46.01% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.77% ( -0.38) | 55.23% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.54% ( -0.31) | 76.46% ( 0.31) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.04% ( -0.35) | 19.96% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.88% ( -0.57) | 52.12% ( 0.57) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.48% ( 0.13) | 42.52% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.12% ( 0.11) | 78.88% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mali | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
| 1-0 @ 13.67% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 11.01% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.04% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.55% Total : 55.23% | 1-1 @ 11.69% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.03% Other @ 0.67% Total : 24.88% | 0-1 @ 7.26% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 5% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 1.94% Total : 19.88% |
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