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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Under-21s win with a probability of 59.59%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 22.02% and a draw had a probability of 18.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.15%) and 2-0 (5.56%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
59.59% ( -0.08) | 18.39% ( 0.02) | 22.02% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 71.95% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 76.98% ( -0.04) | 23.01% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 57.72% ( -0.06) | 42.27% ( 0.06) |
| Manchester United Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.06% ( -0.03) | 7.94% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.95% ( -0.08) | 28.04% ( 0.07) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.16% ( 0.01) | 21.84% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.93% ( 0.02) | 55.07% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.56% ( 0)3-2 @ 5.44% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.7% ( -0)4-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 4.39% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.75% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.67% Total : 59.59% | 1-1 @ 6.68% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.76% ( -0)0-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.78% Total : 18.39% | 1-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0)0-1 @ 2.64% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0)3-4 @ 1.05% 0-3 @ 1.02% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 2.16% Total : 22.02% |
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