SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton Under-21s win with a probability of 56.97%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 23.63% and a draw had a probability of 19.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.95%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Southampton Under-21s in this match.
| Result | ||
| Southampton Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
56.97% ( 0.21) | 19.4% ( -0.06) | 23.63% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 70.19% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.96% ( 0.16) | 26.05% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.73% ( 0.21) | 46.27% ( -0.21) |
| Southampton Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.58% ( 0.1) | 9.42% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.32% ( 0.23) | 31.69% ( -0.23) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.49% ( -0) | 22.51% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.92% ( -0.01) | 56.08% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southampton Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.1% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.75% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.32% Total : 56.97% | 1-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.66% Total : 19.4% | 1-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 2.11% Total : 23.63% |
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