SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 53.21%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 23.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-2 (6.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MK Dons | Draw | Colchester United |
53.21% ( 0.31) | 23.15% ( -0.06) | 23.65% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 56.32% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.93% ( -0) | 44.07% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.55% ( -0) | 66.45% ( 0) |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.46% ( 0.11) | 16.54% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.7% ( 0.2) | 46.3% ( -0.2) |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.47% ( -0.22) | 32.53% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.94% ( -0.25) | 69.05% ( 0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| MK Dons | Draw | Colchester United |
| 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 8.71% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.64% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.23% Total : 53.21% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.15% | 1-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.04% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.5% Total : 23.65% |
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