In an often high-scoring fixture, there have been 18 goals scored in the last five meetings between the sides, including a 4-2 win for Toulouse in the reverse earlier this season.
However, Montpellier's resurgence has been phenomenal, and they may well continue their hot streak with another win over a side who could be focusing more on the cup final to come in a few weeks' time.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 42.9%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Toulouse in this match.
0.54) 
-0.04) 
