Given that Montpellier have shown some improved signs in recent weeks, we expect them to emerge as narrow victors, in what should be an end-to-end game with plenty of goals.
La Paillade are heading into the match off the back of a confidence-boosting victory, while Troyes have been in very poor form for a long time, and we cannot see that changing on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Troyes win with a probability of 38.77%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 34.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Troyes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
0.78) 
-0.13) 
