SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 57.5%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 20.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toulouse | Draw | Marseille |
20.16% ( 0.17) | 22.33% ( 0.11) | 57.5% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 54.12% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.34% ( -0.25) | 44.65% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.98% ( -0.24) | 67.02% ( 0.24) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.88% ( 0.03) | 36.12% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.09% ( 0.03) | 72.9% ( -0.03) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.73% ( -0.17) | 15.27% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.03% ( -0.33) | 43.97% ( 0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toulouse | Draw | Marseille |
| 1-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 5.37% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0)3-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.8% Total : 20.16% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.33% | 0-1 @ 10.36% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 9.92% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 9.74% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 6.1% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 2.87% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)0-5 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.56% Total : 57.5% |
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