SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 48.64%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | River Plate |
26.52% ( 0.18) | 24.85% ( -0.01) | 48.64% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 53.71% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.09% ( 0.19) | 48.91% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29% ( 0.17) | 71% ( -0.17) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.25% ( 0.25) | 32.75% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.69% ( 0.27) | 69.31% ( -0.27) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.86% ( 0.01) | 20.14% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.58% ( 0.01) | 52.42% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 7.36% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.45% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.52% Total : 26.52% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.6% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.84% | 0-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 9.45% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.47% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 5.05% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 2.02% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.81% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.79% Total : 48.64% |
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