Regardless of the 16-point difference between the sides, one victory in five at the Maradona (three altogether in 23-24) means Saturday's game with Salernitana is not guaranteed to end in a Napoli victory despite the Granata's broader away woes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 76.79%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 8.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.77%), while for a Salernitana win it was 1-2 (2.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
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