With just two wins on the road so far, surely Salernitana cannot spoil Napoli's big day by seizing success in this Campania derby? Having last tasted defeat back in February, they can put up some stiff resistance, but the peerless Partenopei will ultimately prevail.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 77%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 8.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.58%) and 1-0 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (2.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.31) 
-0.14) 
