NEC were impressive in their away wins at Alkmaar and Zwolle over the past week, meaning the hosts on Friday will be confident of recording another maximum.
Sittard have been woeful on the road, and despite back-to-back victories at the start of the month, we cannot imagine the visitors earning anything from their trip to Goffertstadion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 25.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
0.26) 
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