Heerenveen have been let down by their home form this season, but the Super Frisians' results on their travels is the seven-best in the Eredivisie.
NEC have conceded a goal in 13 of their 15 fixtures at Stadion de Goffert, and a run that has seen them claim one win in their last six home games is likely to extend to a sole victory in seven on Saturday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 42.37%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 33.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
0.11) 
-0.03) 
