SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 53.98%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 24.75% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.08%) and 1-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Heerenveen |
53.98% ( -0.44) | 21.26% ( 0.15) | 24.75% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 64.36% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.94% ( -0.4) | 34.06% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.06% ( -0.45) | 55.94% ( 0.46) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.2% ( -0.26) | 12.8% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.88% ( -0.54) | 39.12% ( 0.55) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.81% ( 0) | 26.19% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.72% ( 0) | 61.28% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.08% ( 0)1-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)4-3 @ 1% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.41% Total : 53.98% | 1-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.38% Total : 21.26% | 1-2 @ 6.19% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 4.49% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.84% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.25% Total : 24.75% |
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