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Eredivisie | Gameweek 20
Feb 3, 2024 at 8pm UK
Goffertstadion
HA

Nijmegen
3 - 1
Heracles

Ogawa (51' pen., 59'), Chery (66')
Meijer (0'), Sow (48')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Hornkamp (3')
Sonnenberg (50')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 Nijmegen
Sunday, January 28 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Heracles 2-4 Ajax
Saturday, January 27 at 8pm in Eredivisie

We said: NEC 3-1 Heracles

Heracles have conceded the most goals of any Eredivisie team this season, and we can see them enduring another defensive collapse here en route to a disappointing defeat in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 50.87%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 27.29% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.75%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for NEC in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for NEC.

Result
NECDrawHeracles
50.87% (1.332 1.33) 21.83% (-0.365 -0.37) 27.29% (-0.974 -0.97)
Both teams to score 64.9% (0.512 0.51)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.54% (1.02 1.02)34.46% (-1.025 -1.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.61% (1.137 1.14)56.38% (-1.141 -1.14)
NEC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.1% (0.803 0.8)13.89% (-0.808 -0.81)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.68% (1.564 1.56)41.32% (-1.569 -1.57)
Heracles Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.37% (-0.11199999999999 -0.11)24.62% (0.109 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.86% (-0.155 -0.16)59.13% (0.15 0.15)
Score Analysis
    NEC 50.87%
    Heracles 27.29%
    Draw 21.83%
NECDrawHeracles
2-1 @ 9.34% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
1-0 @ 6.75% (-0.157 -0.16)
2-0 @ 6.66% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.14% (0.193 0.19)
3-0 @ 4.38% (0.151 0.15)
3-2 @ 4.31% (0.122 0.12)
4-1 @ 3.03% (0.178 0.18)
4-0 @ 2.16% (0.134 0.13)
4-2 @ 2.12% (0.119 0.12)
5-1 @ 1.2% (0.102 0.1)
4-3 @ 0.99% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 3.78%
Total : 50.87%
1-1 @ 9.46% (-0.25 -0.25)
2-2 @ 6.54% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-0 @ 3.42% (-0.183 -0.18)
3-3 @ 2.01% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 0.39%
Total : 21.83%
1-2 @ 6.63% (-0.196 -0.2)
0-1 @ 4.8% (-0.272 -0.27)
0-2 @ 3.36% (-0.202 -0.2)
1-3 @ 3.1% (-0.102 -0.1)
2-3 @ 3.06% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.57% (-0.099 -0.1)
1-4 @ 1.09% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.07% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 27.29%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 Nijmegen
Sunday, January 28 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Nijmegen 1-0 FC Twente
Saturday, January 20 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Nijmegen 2-1 Go Ahead Eagles
Wednesday, January 17 at 5.45pm in KNVB Beker
Last Game: Feyenoord 2-2 Nijmegen
Sunday, January 14 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: GVVV 1-6 Nijmegen
Wednesday, December 20 at 7pm in KNVB Beker
Last Game: Nijmegen 4-1 Sittard
Friday, December 15 at 7pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Heracles 2-4 Ajax
Saturday, January 27 at 8pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Heracles 1-1 Volendam
Saturday, January 20 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: RKC Waalwijk 1-2 Heracles
Friday, January 12 at 7pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: PSV 1-1 Heracles
Sunday, January 7 at 12pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Heracles 0-4 Feyenoord
Sunday, December 17 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Vitesse 2-0 Heracles
Sunday, December 10 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie


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