SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 57.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Libya had a probability of 16.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.1%) and 2-1 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.79%), while for a Libya win it was 0-1 (7.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nigeria in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Nigeria.
| Result | ||
| Nigeria | Draw | Libya |
57.68% ( 0.07) | 26.22% ( -0.01) | 16.1% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 36.9% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.05% ( -0.04) | 63.95% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.85% ( -0.03) | 83.15% ( 0.03) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.48% ( 0.02) | 22.52% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.91% ( 0.02) | 56.09% ( -0.01) |
| Libya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.62% ( -0.1) | 52.38% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.75% ( -0.06) | 86.25% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nigeria | Draw | Libya |
| 1-0 @ 17.58% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 13.1% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 8.48% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.21% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.57% 3-2 @ 1.36% ( -0)Other @ 2.43% Total : 57.67% | 0-0 @ 11.79% ( 0.02) 1-1 @ 11.37% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.31% Total : 26.21% | 0-1 @ 7.63% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.33% Total : 16.1% |
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