SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Libya win with a probability of 68.88%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Mauritius had a probability of 10.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Libya win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.67%) and 3-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.25%), while for a Mauritius win it was 0-1 (4.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Libya would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Libya | Draw | Mauritius |
68.88% ( 0.35) | 20.99% ( -0.17) | 10.13% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 35.1% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.53% ( 0.15) | 57.47% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.73% ( 0.12) | 78.27% ( -0.12) |
| Libya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.13% ( 0.17) | 15.87% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.92% ( 0.31) | 45.07% ( -0.31) |
| Mauritius Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 41.71% ( -0.27) | 58.28% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.25% ( -0.15) | 89.75% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Libya | Draw | Mauritius |
| 1-0 @ 17.02% 2-0 @ 15.67% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 9.62% ( 0.11)2-1 @ 8.46% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.19% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.07% Total : 68.88% | 0-0 @ 9.25% ( -0.05) 1-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.27% Total : 20.99% | 0-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.31% Total : 10.13% |
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