SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 37.73%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 35.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Orenburg |
35.55% ( -0.46) | 26.72% ( 0.13) | 37.73% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 51.78% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.74% ( -0.54) | 53.26% ( 0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.18% ( -0.46) | 74.81% ( 0.46) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.31% ( -0.54) | 28.68% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.49% ( -0.68) | 64.5% ( 0.68) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.61% ( -0.06) | 27.39% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.14% ( -0.08) | 62.85% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Orenburg |
| 1-0 @ 9.81% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 7.93% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 6.13% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.3% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.55% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.65% Total : 35.55% | 1-1 @ 12.7% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.86% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.72% | 0-1 @ 10.17% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 8.23% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 3.55% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.06% Total : 37.73% |
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