Derby travel to Sixfields off the back of a fine run of form, and we think that the promotion-chasing side will prove too strong for a Northampton team that will be low on confidence following a poor spell of results.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.03%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 16.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.92%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.04) 
