SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 86.37%. A draw had a probability of 10.7% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 2.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 2-0 with a probability of 17.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (15.75%) and 1-0 (13.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (5.15%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (1.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 17.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Northern Ireland in this match.
| Result | ||
| Northern Ireland | Draw | Luxembourg |
86.37% ( 1.89) | 10.68% ( -1.02) | 2.95% ( -0.87) |
| Both teams to score 26% ( -4.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.91% ( -0.4) | 43.09% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.51% ( -0.39) | 65.49% ( 0.39) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.84% ( 0.35) | 7.16% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.97% ( 0.91) | 26.03% ( -0.92) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 28% ( -4.56) | 72% ( 4.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 4.35% ( -1.65) | 95.65% ( 1.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Northern Ireland | Draw | Luxembourg |
| 2-0 @ 17.91% ( 0.94) 3-0 @ 15.75% ( 1.11)1-0 @ 13.58% ( 0.48)4-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.9)2-1 @ 5.89% ( -0.8)5-0 @ 5.48% ( 0.57)3-1 @ 5.17% ( -0.6)4-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.33)6-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.29)5-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.14)7-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.67% Total : 86.35% | 0-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.09) 1-1 @ 4.46% ( -0.7)2-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.35)Other @ 0.1% Total : 10.68% | 0-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.3) Other @ 1.26% Total : 2.95% |
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