Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 64.55%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 14.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.55%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
0.13) 
-0.07) 
