Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest Melgar win was 0-1 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Patronato would win this match.
-0.19) 
0.03) 
