SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Pau had a probability of 30.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pau | Draw | Caen |
30.03% ( -0.38) | 25.65% ( 0.08) | 44.32% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 53.56% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.77% ( -0.51) | 50.23% ( 0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.81% ( -0.45) | 72.19% ( 0.45) |
| Pau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.2% ( -0.52) | 30.8% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.92% ( -0.62) | 67.08% ( 0.63) |
| Caen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.4% ( -0.07) | 22.6% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.79% ( -0.11) | 56.21% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pau | Draw | Caen |
| 1-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 4.83% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.02% Total : 30.03% | 1-1 @ 12.19% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.65% | 0-1 @ 10.35% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 9.07% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.7% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 4.49% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.82% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.42% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.17% Total : 44.32% |
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