Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 42.5%. A win for Pau had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Pau win was 0-1 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.
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