Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.31%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 26.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.15%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
-0.01) 
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