SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 42.87%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 31.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Barnsley |
31.83% ( 0.02) | 25.3% ( 0.15) | 42.87% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 55.56% ( -0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.99% ( -0.67) | 48.01% ( 0.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.82% ( -0.62) | 70.18% ( 0.62) |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.54% ( -0.31) | 28.46% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.78% ( -0.4) | 64.22% ( 0.4) |
| Barnsley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.66% ( -0.37) | 22.34% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.18% ( -0.55) | 55.82% ( 0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Port Vale | Draw | Barnsley |
| 1-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 7.53% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.15% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.1% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.69% Total : 31.83% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 6.36% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.3% | 0-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 8.97% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 7.14% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.48% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 3.57% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.28% Total : 42.87% |
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