The last five meetings between Portimonense and Moreirense have produced a combined 16 goals and we anticipate another action-packed contest at the Estadio Municipal de Portimao. With their season potentially resting on this result, we predict that Portimonense will come away with all three points against an out-of-sorts Moreirense side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.26%) and 0-2 (8.92%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
-0.33) 
0.48) 
