SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 87.63%. A draw had a probability of 8.6% and a win for Leixoes had a probability of 3.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.84%) and 4-0 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.02%), while for a Leixoes win it was 1-2 (1.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Leixoes |
87.63% ( -0.26) | 8.57% ( 0.17) | 3.79% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 44.18% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75% ( -0.44) | 25% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 55.08% ( -0.58) | 44.92% ( 0.58) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.34% ( -0.11) | 3.66% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 84.22% ( -0.36) | 15.78% ( 0.36) |
| Leixoes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.86% ( 0.02) | 54.14% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.64% ( 0.01) | 87.36% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Leixoes |
| 3-0 @ 11.95% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.84% ( 0.13)4-0 @ 9.88% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.08)1-0 @ 6.56% ( 0.13)5-0 @ 6.54% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.06)6-0 @ 3.6% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.25% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)7-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.06)5-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.02)7-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.91% Total : 87.63% | 1-1 @ 4.02% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 1.98% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.52% Total : 8.57% | 1-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.34% Total : 3.79% |
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