SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 52.83%. A win for Porto had a probability of 23.68% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.76%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Porto win was 0-1 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
52.83% ( -0.41) | 23.49% ( 0.27) | 23.68% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 55.22% ( -0.74) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.46% ( -1.06) | 45.54% ( 1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.13% ( -1.02) | 67.87% ( 1.02) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.79% ( -0.53) | 17.21% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.51% ( -0.95) | 47.49% ( 0.95) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.7% ( -0.47) | 33.3% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.08% ( -0.51) | 69.92% ( 0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 10.08% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 5.21% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 2.52% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.85% Total : 52.83% | 1-1 @ 11.08% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 5.36% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.48% | 0-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.35% Total : 23.68% |
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