Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 46.2%. A win for Puebla had a probability of 30.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.52%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Puebla win was 2-1 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
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