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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos Laguna win with a probability of 50.97%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 26.66% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos Laguna win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-2 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos Laguna would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Santos Laguna | Draw | Toluca |
50.97% ( 5.61) | 22.37% ( -0.38) | 26.66% ( -5.22) |
| Both teams to score 62.29% ( -2.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.37% ( -1.53) | 37.63% ( 1.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.13% ( -1.66) | 59.87% ( 1.66) |
| Santos Laguna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.01% ( 1.43) | 15% ( -1.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.55% ( 2.64) | 43.45% ( -2.64) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.28% ( -4.08) | 26.72% ( 4.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.02% ( -5.72) | 61.99% ( 5.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| Santos Laguna | Draw | Toluca |
| 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.51) 1-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.89)2-0 @ 7.21% ( 1.15)3-1 @ 6.02% ( 0.59)3-0 @ 4.56% ( 0.91)3-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.86% ( 0.41)4-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.51)4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.2)Other @ 4.1% Total : 50.97% | 1-1 @ 10.03% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.41)0-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.25)Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.37% | 1-2 @ 6.62% ( -0.79) 0-1 @ 5.29% ( -0.23)0-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.61)1-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.76)2-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.55)0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.5)1-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.4)2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.32)Other @ 2.17% Total : 26.66% |
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