Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Puebla win with a probability of 40.66%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Puebla win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
