SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 60.28%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 19.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.24%) and 1-0 (7.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
60.28% ( 0.05) | 20.02% ( 0.01) | 19.7% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 61.55% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.46% ( -0.13) | 34.53% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.53% ( -0.15) | 56.46% ( 0.14) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.8% ( -0.03) | 11.19% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.29% ( -0.06) | 35.71% ( 0.05) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.31% ( -0.13) | 30.68% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.06% ( -0.16) | 66.94% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 7.1% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.89% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.7% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.44% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 60.28% | 1-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.3% Total : 20.02% | 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.06% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.4% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 19.7% |
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