SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.57%) and 3-1 (5.46%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | RB Leipzig |
44.5% ( -0.09) | 21.98% ( 0.01) | 33.51% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 68.38% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.47% ( -0.05) | 31.53% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.99% ( -0.06) | 53.01% ( 0.06) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.04% ( -0.06) | 14.96% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.62% ( -0.1) | 43.37% ( 0.09) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.41% ( 0.01) | 19.59% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.48% ( 0.02) | 51.52% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.57% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.46% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.29% ( -0)3-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.59% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.15% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.33% Total : 44.5% | 1-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 7.03% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.42% ( -0)Other @ 0.53% Total : 21.98% | 1-2 @ 7.4% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.82% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.64% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.56% ( 0)3-4 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 3.31% Total : 33.51% |
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